Grok 5 still in training as its Q1 2026 target looks unlikely

Elon Musk had told investors, in a November 2025 interview with Baron Capital, that xAI’s next flagship model, Grok 5, would ship in the first quarter of 2026 and would run to roughly six trillion parameters — about double the scale of Grok 4 — training on the newly built Colossus 2 supercluster in Memphis. By late January 2026, with the model still in training, industry trackers following xAI’s public statements reported no confirmed release date and increasing doubt that the Q1 window would hold; xAI’s own public communications pointed to a later window without committing to one.

xAI did not dispute that Grok 5 remained in training, but the company’s public statements in this period focused on its infrastructure and a further funding round rather than on a firm ship date. Musk had separately suggested the model carried a rising, self-estimated probability of reaching artificial general intelligence — a claim attributed to Musk rather than independently evaluated. The Q1 target ultimately passed without a release, and xAI’s subsequent public guidance pointed to later in the year.