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Altman says OpenAI expects an internal AGI-level system by year-end

Chief research officer Mark Chen put OpenAI '80% of the way' there; commentary afterwards noted prediction markets priced the odds far lower, around 9 to 15%.

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In a TIME interview published 26 August 2026, OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman said the company was “not quite yet” at artificial general intelligence but expected to have an internal system he would call AGI by the end of the year — measured against OpenAI’s own charter definition of “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.”

Chief research officer Mark Chen told TIME the company was “80% of the way” to that goal, and co-founder Greg Brockman suggested the current period might later be seen as when AGI first appeared. The interview, drawn from conversations with more than twenty OpenAI staff and outside competitors, also described Astra, the unreleased model family OpenAI had confirmed weeks earlier, including a demonstration in which sixteen agents divided up and worked together on a research-level mathematics problem. Altman predicted Astra would be OpenAI’s first model to “invent new things in a way that matters.”

Commentary responding to the interview set the claim against outside forecasts: coverage citing prediction markets put the odds of OpenAI actually reaching that bar by year-end at roughly 9 to 15%, well below the confidence implied by Altman’s and Chen’s remarks, reflecting both scepticism about the timeline and disagreement over whether OpenAI’s own definition of AGI would be accepted as the real thing once announced.

The interview appeared the same day OpenAI and outside investigators published detailed forensic reports on the July breach in which the company’s own evaluation agents had autonomously compromised Hugging Face’s systems — a juxtaposition several outlets noted when weighing how much confidence to place in the company’s account of its own capabilities and controls. It followed a summer in which OpenAI had also paused reinforcement-learning training on Astra-generation models over safety concerns, even as it publicised the same models’ research capabilities.

In the commentary

What people were saying around this time — external links, from the record's commentary rail.