Matthew Barnett

Commentary by Matthew Barnett

From the commentary rail — every link leaves the site for the original piece.

• 21 March 2025 · Epoch AIMost AI value will come from broad automation, not from R&DAI's biggest impact will come from broad labor automation—not R&D—driving economic growth through scale, not scientific breakthroughs.
• 28 February 2025 · Epoch AIThe promise of reasoning modelsReasoning models are perhaps best understood as part of a broader, longer-term trend in which AI systems incrementally take on new tasks they were previously incapable of handling.
• 14 February 2025 · Epoch AIAlgorithmic progress likely spurs more spending on compute, not lessAlgorithmic progress in AI may not reduce compute spending—instead, it could drive higher investment as efficiency unlocks new opportunities.
• 25 January 2025 · Epoch AIAGI could drive wages below subsistence levelHistorically, many have feared that automation would lead to mass unemployment and lower wages.