Person
Tom Davidson
Tom Davidson is a senior research fellow at Forethought, an AI macrostrategy research group launched in 2024 by Max Dalton, Will MacAskill, Amrit Sidhu-Brar and others. He is known for a series of reports on AI timelines and the potential for rapid, AI-driven economic growth, work he previously carried out at Open Philanthropy and the UK's AI Security Institute.
Commentary by Tom Davidson
From the commentary rail — every link leaves the site for the original piece.
- 9 September 2026 · ForethoughtData bottlenecks won’t prevent an intelligence explosionBut they will slow it down
- 10 July 2026 · ForethoughtPlan A’s problem with dry tinderHow bad would it be to make the intelligence explosion 10x faster?
- 27 May 2026 · ForethoughtHow can the middle powers avoid getting trounced during the intelligence explosion? A plan.Superintelligence will likely be developed by US companies; run on US data centres; and be under the jurisdiction of the US government.
- 17 April 2026 · ForethoughtAI for decision advice
- 30 March 2026 · ForethoughtAI should be a good citizen, not just a good assistant
- 23 March 2026 · ForethoughtAI character is a big deal
- 24 February 2026 · ForethoughtMoral public goods are a big deal for whether we get a good future
- 7 January 2026 · ForethoughtML research directions for preventing catastrophic data poisoning
- 21 August 2025 · ForethoughtCould one country outgrow the rest of the world?When countries grow at the same exponential rate, they maintain their relative sizes. But after we develop AGI, there may be a period of superexponential growth, with growth becoming faster and faster over time. If this superexponential growth lasts for long enough, the leader could pull further…
- 7 August 2025 · ForethoughtHow Quick and Big Would a Software Intelligence Explosion Be?AI systems may soon fully automate AI R&D.
- 26 June 2025 · ForethoughtThe Industrial ExplosionOnce AI can automate human labour, positive feedback loops could lead to a rapid increase in physical capabilities as well as cognitive ones.
- 6 June 2023 · Planned ObsolescenceCould AI accelerate economic growth?Most new technologies don’t accelerate the pace of economic growth. But advanced AI might do this by massively increasing the research effort going into developing new technologies.
- 12 April 2023 · Planned ObsolescenceContinuous doesn’t mean slowOnce a lab trains AI that can fully replace its human employees, it will be able to multiply its workforce 100,000x. If these AIs do AI research, they could develop vastly superhuman systems in under a year.